Featured forecasts from Good Judgment’s Professional Superforecasters.
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Probability values are updated daily at 7:00AM US Eastern time.

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Will Fitch, Moody's, and/or S&P announce that the US has defaulted on its debt before 1 November 2024? Today's
Forecast
1-week
Change
Today's Forecast:
 A
 
Yes
0% 0    
 B
 
No
100% 0    
Forecast History:


What will be the US real GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2024 relative to the fourth quarter of 2023? Today's
Forecast
1-week
Change
Today's Forecast:
 A
 
Less than 0.0%
6% 0    
 B
 
Between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive
30% 0    
 C
 
More than 1.5% but less than 3.0%
49% 0    
 D
 
Between 3.0% and 4.5%, inclusive
13% 0    
 E
 
More than 4.5%
2% 0    
Forecast History:


Will the People's Republic of China (PRC) or Taiwan publicly accuse the other of using a weapon against its national military, militia, and/or law enforcement forces before 1 January 2025? Today's
Forecast
1-week
Change
Today's Forecast:
 A
 
Yes
26% -1    
 B
 
No
74% +1    
Forecast History:


Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 October 2023? Today's
Forecast
1-week
Change
Today's Forecast:
 A
 
Yes
2% 0    
 B
 
No
98% 0    
Forecast History:


Will the World Health Organization (WHO) declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) regarding H5N1 avian influenza before 1 January 2025? Today's
Forecast
1-week
Change
Today's Forecast:
 A
 
Yes
3% 0    
 B
 
No
97% 0    
Forecast History:


How many deaths attributed to H5N1 avian influenza will the World Health Organization (WHO) report between 7 February 2023 and 31 December 2024? Today's
Forecast
1-week
Change
Today's Forecast:
 A
 
Fewer than 100
95% +1    
 B
 
Between 100 and 1,000, inclusive
4% 0    
 C
 
More than 1,000 but fewer than 10,000
1% 0    
 D
 
Between 10,000 and 100,000, inclusive
0% -1    
 E
 
More than 100,000
0% 0    
Forecast History:


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